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sillyhome-next/app/ml/explanation.py
Otto 0de537572d
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ML-009: add explainable predictions
Closes #20
2026-06-13 20:16:26 +02:00

58 lines
1.6 KiB
Python

from __future__ import annotations
from dataclasses import dataclass
from app.ml.training import FeatureModel
@dataclass(frozen=True)
class FeatureExplanation:
feature: str
current_value: float
predicted_value: float
change: float
direction: str
sample_count: int
historical_mean: float
historical_range: tuple[float, float]
standard_deviation: float
trend_per_step: float
confidence: float
summary: str
def explain_feature(
feature_name: str,
current_value: float,
predicted_value: float,
model: FeatureModel,
) -> FeatureExplanation:
change = predicted_value - current_value
direction = _direction(change)
summary = (
f"{feature_name}: {direction}; Prognose {predicted_value:.3f} "
f"aus aktuellem Wert {current_value:.3f} und Trend {model.slope:+.3f}. "
f"Basis: {model.sample_count} Messwerte, Mittelwert {model.mean:.3f}, "
f"Confidence {model.confidence:.0%}."
)
return FeatureExplanation(
feature=feature_name,
current_value=current_value,
predicted_value=predicted_value,
change=change,
direction=direction,
sample_count=model.sample_count,
historical_mean=model.mean,
historical_range=(model.minimum, model.maximum),
standard_deviation=model.standard_deviation,
trend_per_step=model.slope,
confidence=model.confidence,
summary=summary,
)
def _direction(change: float) -> str:
if abs(change) < 1e-12:
return "stabil"
return "steigend" if change > 0 else "fallend"