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sillyhome-next/app/ml/training.py
Otto df2ddacfbf
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ML-008: add statistical baseline model
Closes #19
2026-06-13 20:13:06 +02:00

118 lines
3.8 KiB
Python

from __future__ import annotations
import logging
import math
from collections import defaultdict
from dataclasses import dataclass, field
from app.ml.feature_store import FeatureStore
logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
@dataclass(frozen=True)
class FeatureModel:
sample_count: int
mean: float
standard_deviation: float
minimum: float
maximum: float
slope: float
intercept: float
def forecast(self, current_value: float | None = None) -> float:
if current_value is not None:
return current_value + self.slope
return self.intercept + self.slope * self.sample_count
@property
def confidence(self) -> float:
sample_score = self.sample_count / (self.sample_count + 2)
scale = abs(self.mean) if abs(self.mean) > 1e-9 else 1.0
stability_score = 1.0 / (1.0 + self.standard_deviation / scale)
return min(0.99, max(0.05, sample_score * stability_score))
@dataclass(frozen=True)
class TrainedArtifact:
artifact_id: str
supported_sensors: tuple[str, ...]
feature_models: dict[str, dict[str, FeatureModel]] = field(default_factory=dict)
model_type: str = "statistical_baseline"
class TrainingPipeline:
def __init__(self, store: FeatureStore) -> None:
self._store = store
self._artifacts: dict[str, TrainedArtifact] = {}
def run(self, artifact_id: str) -> TrainedArtifact:
vectors = self._store.all()
if not vectors:
raise ValueError("FeatureStore enthält keine Trainingsdaten.")
samples: dict[str, dict[str, list[float]]] = defaultdict(lambda: defaultdict(list))
for vector in vectors:
for feature_name, raw_value in vector.values.items():
value = float(raw_value)
if math.isfinite(value):
samples[vector.sensor_id][feature_name].append(value)
feature_models = {
sensor_id: {
feature_name: _fit_feature(values)
for feature_name, values in sorted(features.items())
if values
}
for sensor_id, features in sorted(samples.items())
}
feature_models = {
sensor_id: models for sensor_id, models in feature_models.items() if models
}
if not feature_models:
raise ValueError("Trainingsdaten enthalten keine endlichen numerischen Werte.")
sensors = tuple(feature_models)
artifact = TrainedArtifact(
artifact_id=artifact_id,
supported_sensors=sensors,
feature_models=feature_models,
)
self._artifacts[artifact_id] = artifact
logger.info("Training abgeschlossen für %s mit %d Sensoren", artifact_id, len(sensors))
return artifact
def export(self, artifact_id: str) -> TrainedArtifact:
if artifact_id not in self._artifacts:
raise KeyError(f"Artifact '{artifact_id}' nicht gefunden.")
return self._artifacts[artifact_id]
def _fit_feature(values: list[float]) -> FeatureModel:
sample_count = len(values)
mean = sum(values) / sample_count
variance = sum((value - mean) ** 2 for value in values) / sample_count
standard_deviation = math.sqrt(variance)
if sample_count == 1:
slope = 0.0
intercept = mean
else:
x_mean = (sample_count - 1) / 2
denominator = sum((index - x_mean) ** 2 for index in range(sample_count))
numerator = sum(
(index - x_mean) * (value - mean) for index, value in enumerate(values)
)
slope = numerator / denominator
intercept = mean - slope * x_mean
return FeatureModel(
sample_count=sample_count,
mean=mean,
standard_deviation=standard_deviation,
minimum=min(values),
maximum=max(values),
slope=slope,
intercept=intercept,
)